A year after Donald Trump swept to power, Republicans face their first major test at the polls, with voters in two of the most populous US states set to deliver their verdict on the president's return to the White House.
The high-profile mayoral contest in New York City may be grabbing the headlines, but the races for the governor's mansions in New Jersey and Virginia -- home to a combined 18 million people -- offer a sharper preview of next year's midterm elections.
Both pit centrist Democrats against Republicans aligned with Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, and could signal whether middle-of-the-road voters have made peace with the president's radical cost-slashing agenda -- or plan to give his party a bloody nose in 2026.
Trump has sent a steamroller through government since returning to office in January, shuttering entire agencies and cutting an estimated 200,000 jobs even before the government shutdown.
"If Democrats sweep -- or even win -- Virginia and edge New Jersey, it signals the suburbs haven't forgiven MAGA," California-based financial and political analyst Michael Ashley Schulman told AFP.
The election in Virginia, which is second only to California in the size of its federal workforce, will be a historic showdown between two women vying to become the state's first female governor.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, faces Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Marine veteran and staunch Trump ally.
Polls show Spanberger -- who has leaned on her national security credentials and cast herself as a bulwark against Trump's aggressive federal downsizing -- holding a steady lead of about seven points.
She has vowed in stump speeches to be "a governor who will stand up" for the thousands of federal workers laid off by Trump's Department of Government Efficiency.
- 'Tooth and nail' -
Earle-Sears opened her campaign on red meat to fire up conservatives, mirroring the playbook of outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin to focus on culture war issues such as transgender athletes and abortion.
Her lagging campaign was boosted by an endorsement from Trump and a down-ticket scandal involving Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, who reportedly sent violent text messages about a political rival in 2022.
Over in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill -- another 2018 "blue wave" alum and former Navy pilot -- is also ahead, but locked in a tighter battle with Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli.
"Given New Jersey's traditional Democratic lean, a loss for the party in the 2025 election would raise concerns about its national prospects heading into the 2026 midterms," said Janie Mackenzie, a communications specialist who worked on John Kerry's 2008 Senate campaign.
Polls show Sherrill narrowly ahead, bolstered by strong early Democratic turnout.
Trump's decision to freeze funding for the Hudson Tunnel project -- a vital link between New Jersey and New York -- may yet prove to be the biggest boost of the campaign for Sherrill, who has vowed to "fight this tooth and nail."
Ciattarelli, who has embraced Trump more openly than in previous runs for office, focuses on affordability, promising to cap property taxes and cut corporate rates.
Keith Nahigian, a veteran of six presidential campaigns and former member of Trump's transition team, said a focus on the economy -- including "the high cost of electric" -- would benefit Ciattarelli.
For Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, Tuesday's vote will be "a referendum on where the country is right now."
"It's the first major opportunity for Democrats to show they can win again," the former advisor to ex-vice president Kamala Harris told AFP.
"It's a chance for voters to make themselves heard on what's happening in this country with Donald Trump."
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