A flash drought is leaving 94% of the state in at least abnormally dry conditions, according to the Sept. 11 U.S. Drought Monitor. Additionally, about 17% of the state is considered in severe drought conditions.
Zack Leasor, state climatologist with MU Extension, said this flash drought comes just weeks after a favorable report from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The July 29 report showed that there were no drought conditions throughout Missouri. However, last month was the third driest August on record.
“After a pretty wet start to the year for a lot of people, that faucet turned off, and we haven’t seen hardly any significant rain over a period of about six weeks now,” Leasor said. “Because of this, conditions have really evolved quickly over a period of weeks instead of months.”
Leasor said these drought conditions are similar to the early fall drought Missouri experienced last year, which resulted in some parts of the state facing extreme drought conditions by late October. However, he said these conditions could be worse because there is less rainfall projected compared to last year.
Although row crops, such as corn, have already matured for the season, the drought could affect the harvest of soybeans. Bob Maltsbarger, senior research economist at the University of Missouri Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, said August is an important month for soybean yields, and the dry conditions could affect the expected numbers.
“The flash drought is probably more important in the near term to what’s going to happen with soybean crops for the state of Missouri,” Maltsbarger said. “We typically grow more soybeans than we do any other crop.”
In a news release from MU Extension, state soybean farming systems specialist Andre Froes de Borja Reis said the rain shortfall comes right when the demand for water is highest for soybeans. In dry conditions, soybean seeds become undersized, which can negatively affect the harvest numbers.
“Drought has already reduced seed formation in some regions and planting date scenarios, and any rainfall on harvest-matured beans could trigger seed deterioration and price penalties,” de Borja Reis said in the release.
Maltsbarger said poor pasture conditions could affect the price of retail beef due to farmers relying on hay and forage rather than field grazing. He said beef inventory is the lowest it has been in decades. Low inventory and high consumer demand has resulted in record highs for beef prices, which will persist if these dry conditions continue.
“Those that are raising the cattle potentially may have to look at forage getting fed a little bit earlier from the hay stocks, rather than grazing them on the field,” Maltsbarger said.
Maltsbarger is also concerned these conditions may affect winter crops after the fall harvests. He said these drought conditions may cause farmers to reconsider and focus on spring crops when conditions are more favorable.
“If we continue to get these drought-like conditions through the whole fall and into the beginning of winter, we may see the crop mix change, where farmers have to push back and basically plant a spring crop instead,” Maltsbarger said.
Leasor said these drought conditions are also affecting neighboring states like Illinois and Kentucky, which are contributors to the agricultural industry. He said there is a need for consistent rainfall in the future to reduce the flash drought.
“It’s going to take more than just one rainfall event or one week of good rain now to dig out of this, so we really need to see a pattern flip over the next month,” Leasor said.