(The Center Square) – Democrat Roy Cooper, elected politician from 1986 until leaving the governor’s office nearly two years ago, leads Republican Michael Whatley 49%-38% in the bid to succeed Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
The Elon University Poll, released Thursday morning and performed in conjunction with YouGov, sampled 1,121 North Carolina adults Aug. 21-31 and carries a +/- 5.6% margin of error. Respondents were matched down to a sample of 800 for the final dataset.
The poll further dug into those registered to vote. Cooper led there 49%-36%. The survey connected with 72% registered to vote and 63% saying with absolute certainty they will vote this cycle.
Cooper has led since each declared in July last year whether the measure was name recognition, fiscal strength through Federal Elections Commissions filings, or polls.
Whatley’s campaign has made nominal gain in getting him known, with 57% of registered voters saying familiarity with him was “a great deal” or “some.” In the Elon Poll taken March 13-20 and released April 2, only 35% of registered voters chose “a great deal” or “some” for their familiarity with Whatley.
For context, absentee votes went into the mail Friday of last week, some ballots are already returned, and only 1 in 2 know the Republican candidate. For Cooper, 83% of registered voters said their familiarity with him was “a great deal” or “some.”
Whatley has been chairman of the Republican National Committee and the North Carolina Republican Party. He's making his first bid for elected office.
Litigation uncertainty aside, the state began the 61-day window to Nov. 3 as planned last Friday. Anyone in the state can request an absentee ballot. The deadline for requesting is Oct. 20. Early in-person voting is Oct. 15-31, with same-day voter registration permitted. Otherwise, voter registration ends at 5 p.m. on Oct. 9.
All absentee ballots must be in the county election board offices when polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Nov. 3.
The Elon Poll found 51% of registered voters planning to cast a ballot in the in-person early period, 35% have plans to vote Nov. 3, and 8% plan to vote by mail.
North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly. One state Supreme Court seat and a number of judges, district attorneys, and county level offices are on the state's second-longest ballot of the four-year cycles.
Cooper’s bid to succeed Tillis would be trend-breaking if successful. Tillis, Richard Burr and Ted Budd have made Republicans 5-for-5 since Democrat Kay Hagan won election to the U.S. Senate in 2008.
Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.
This U.S. Senate seat is viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for a majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races.