The blue wave reached the steps of the Missouri Governor’s Mansion Tuesday when Democrats won the state House seat representing downtown Jefferson City on their way to flipping 16 seats from Republicans across the state.
Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe’s official residence will be represented by Suzanne Luther, a former member of the Jefferson City Board of Education who defeated Republican Shane Kampeter.
Tuesday’s results broke the Republican’s two-thirds supermajority, which has been in place since 2012. And it was almost a mirror image of the Republican’s biggest night this century, when the GOP won 17 seats in 2010.
The House will have 95 Republicans and 68 Democrats when it convenes in January.
“It feels really, really good to look towards the next General Assembly and not be a member of a super minority party,” said state Rep. Ashley Aune of Kansas City, the House Democratic floor leader. “It’s really exciting and I’m very, very heartened by the results so far tonight.”
In addition to taking seats they targeted, Democrats scored surprising victories in safe Republican seats in Cass County, where Stacy Czar of Belton defeated Steve Baker for the open 56th District seat. Democrats also won three seats in St. Charles County, where they had been shut out for 20 years.
Republicans did not flip any Democrat-held seat.
Notable Republican losses include state Rep. Brad Christ of St. Louis County in the 96th District, who was seeking a leadership position, and Maryellen Murphy, who was seeking to replace her husband James Murphy in the 94th District.
When Tuesday began, Republicans were assured five seats and Democrats were sure to win 32 in districts where the candidate was unopposed or faced only minor party opposition.
Both parties fielded candidates in 87 districts considered safe for the incumbent party, and those districts are where Republicans had the advantage that sustained their majority.
Only nine of those districts are safe Democratic seats, while Republicans held 78 seats considered safe.
Statewide, The Independent rated 39 districts as less than safe for the incumbent party. Of those, the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee targeted 12, including 11 held by Republicans.
The House Republican Campaign Committee focused on defending 13 seats, including 10 on the Democrats’ list, while targeting a single Democrat for defeat.
Democrats won almost every seat they targeted that was held by Republicans and held every seat they were defending.
The safe seats — and a huge fundraising advantage — were the GOP’s firewall to keep the majority even if the supermajority was lost.
Including the committees each party maintains to help members generally, candidates and incumbents on Tuesday’s ballot for the Missouri House raised $24.9 million since the start of 2025. The last full reports, covering the period up to Oct. 22, showed $11.1 million had been spent and $6.6 million had been passed on as contributions to other committees.
Republican candidates, their affiliated PACs and the House Republican Campaign Committee raised $17.7 million. Republicans spent $6.5 million and passed $5.8 million on to other committees, much of it going to the HRCC.
Democratic candidates and PACs, and the House Democratic Action Fund, raised $7.1 million. Candidates and the HDAF spent $4.6 million and reported making $767,000 in contributions.
Whether the shift is a part of a longer-term move to the Democrats will be seen in future elections. Voters are slow to change the party in power in Jefferson City.
Democrats won a Missouri House majority in every election from 1954 to 2000 and Republicans have won it in every election since. Democrats last won a supermajority in 1986.
Newly elected members from both parties will gather in Jefferson City Wednesday and Thursday to select leaders for the upcoming session.