St. Louis University professor Ness Sandoval recently spoke to a crowd of about 50 people at Jefferson College about how to reverse the shrinking population in the region and concluded that the best solution is to allow more housing to be built.
Sandoval, a professor of demography and sociology, gave the presentation, called on “Unraveling Population Shifts: Exploring Population Shifts of the St. Louis Metropolitan Region with a focus on Jefferson County,” on June 13.
Local politicians and civic leaders were among those who attended the presentation that focused on information from the city of St. Louis and 15 counties (including Jefferson County) from both sides of the Mississippi River.
According to statistics Sandoval provided after the presentation, Jefferson County’s population grew from 105,248 in 1970 to 198,099 in 1990 and then to 218,733 in 2010 and 226,739 in 2020.
While Jefferson County’s population hasn’t declined over the past few decades, growth is slowing down, Sandoval said.
“If the county decides to veto new homes, this will be a big blow to population growth in the county, given the birth and death ratios for the county.”
Sandoval said Jefferson County is sixth in the St. Louis region in terms of population at 231,230 as of 2023.
Those ahead of Jefferson County are St. Louis County at 987,059, St. Charles County at 416,659, St. Louis city at 281,754, Madison County (Ill.) at 262,752 and St. Clair County (Ill.) at 251,018.
Sandoval said, overall, the St. Louis region has seen a downward population trend for decades.
“My presentation is going to sound very negative,” he warned at the start of his talk.
Sandoval said flat or downward trends in population are occurring worldwide, adding that the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated population concerns.
“By 2040, births and deaths in the United States will be the same,” he said, meaning there will be a flat line on growth. “COVID accelerated demographic trends by about a decade.”
Sandoval said Missouri is projected to lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives by the year 2040 if the state’s population trends continue as they are.
He said Hispanics are the one demographic group in the country that continues seeing an upward trend in births, noting that both the St. Louis region overall and Jefferson County have small Hispanic communities.
Over the years, the St. Louis region has lost large numbers of people due to migration to other parts of the country, along with the birth rate not keeping up with the death rate, Sandoval said.
During the presentation, Sandoval spent a great deal of time talking about the need to build more housing to combat declining population trends, adding that adding more affordable housing would attract more young families to an area.
“You cannot vote down housing,” he said. “You need more housing. We need attainable homes.”
Construction not only gives people a place to live, but pumps up the economy, Sandoval added.
“Part of migration is jobs,” he said. “We need to create jobs.”
He said it is possible for Jefferson County to boost population, but only if new housing development is encouraged.
“Jefferson County can turn this around if they’re willing to build more housing,” Sandoval said. “Building quality attainable housing for residents, especially families with children.”
Jefferson County Councilman Charles Groeteke (District 4, Barnhart) said he believes Jefferson County leadership is making the right decisions in regard to growth.
“Jefferson County has got a bright future,” Groeteke said. “I’ve seen building permits will be up again this year. Everything is moving in the right direction.”
Hillsboro Mayor Buddy Russell said he agrees with Sandoval’s points about construction.
“We need to keep putting up housing, buildings,” Russell said. “It has to happen.”
Jefferson College, the Economic Development Corporation of Jefferson County and Jefferson County Growth Association sponsored the presentation.